Qatar LNG Sailings Through Hormuz Hit a Two-Month High, Still About a Fifth of Prewar Traffic

At least four laden LNG carriers left the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz in the week to September 24, and at least two more sailed in. That's the most sustained run of Qatari LNG traffic since early July, when the country largely stopped exporting through the strait after one of its carriers was attacked. One of the cargoes reached India's west coast on Thursday.

Set against the prewar pattern, the numbers are small. Qatar used to send out about three cargoes a day, around 21 in a normal week. Four departures is roughly a fifth of that.

They still count. Gas prices in Europe and Asia rose to their highest levels since 2022 in mid-September as buyers competed for winter supply, with Europe's TTF benchmark touching about $27.8 per million British thermal units on September 14. Prices have eased since on talk of US-Iran negotiations, but Asian spot LNG still costs more than double what it did a year ago. Every extra cargo out of Ras Laffan takes a little pressure off that market.

Gas Can't Use the Oil Workaround

Before the war, Hormuz carried about 20% of the world's LNG. Gulf oil producers have kept some crude moving with a shuttle system: their own tankers run the strait and hand cargoes to other ships in the Gulf of Oman. LNG doesn't adapt well to that. Transferring a cargo held at minus 162 degrees Celsius between two ships at sea is technically much harder than moving crude, so Qatar's choice is close to binary. A carrier either sails through Hormuz with its cargo or the cargo stays home.

That makes each departure a direct bet on the waterway. No AIS signals were picked up from five of the vessels as they transited. Jamming and interference are common in the area, so it's hard to say how many transponders were switched off and how many were simply drowned out.

The strait is still dangerous. The IMO has confirmed at least 84 incidents involving merchant ships in Hormuz and the wider Middle East since the war began on February 28, with at least 23 seafarers killed. An Indian crew member died when the bulk carrier Cape Dao was attacked near Hormuz on September 23. This week a Bahrain-led statement at the UN, backed by 80 countries, demanded the strait reopen without tolls, conditions or illegal charges.

A Plant Running on Minimum

With exports throttled, Qatar has had a storage problem to manage. It has loaded LNG onto empty carriers already inside the Gulf and sent some gas to Kuwait, which lets parts of Ras Laffan keep running at minimum rates. Keeping trains turning protects the equipment (and means output can climb quickly once ships can move).

It also leaves Qatar with cargo already afloat inside the Gulf, ready to sail the moment transit looks safe enough.

Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi said last Sunday that undamaged parts of Ras Laffan, the largest LNG export complex in the world, could return to full operation within a couple of weeks of Hormuz reopening.

What the Rise Tells You

The gradual increase says Doha is more willing to take the risk, and that buyers paying winter prices will accept cargoes that come with it. It doesn't mean the strait is open. Four sailings a week is a trickle next to three a day.

If Hormuz does reopen, Qatari supply could come back quickly, because the plant never fully shut and some LNG is already loaded. Until then it's one carrier at a time.