Houthis Seize Mocha and Perim Island, Taking Control of Yemen's Side of Bab el-Mandeb

For two and a half years the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping came from drones, missiles and small boats launched from the Yemeni coast north of the strait. This week the Houthis took the strait itself.

On September 10 Houthi fighters reached the port town of Mocha at dawn and moved offshore to take the nearby islands. The next day they captured Dhubab, the al-Omari camp that overlooks the waterway, and Mayyun Island. Most charts still call it Perim. It sits right in the middle of Bab el-Mandeb and splits the strait into its two channels. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said the operation pushed Saudi-backed forces out of six districts covering 5,400 square kilometers.

Reports say Saudi aircraft struck Mocha airport in response. Iran praised the advance.

Why Perim matters

Bab el-Mandeb is about 18 miles wide at its narrowest. Perim divides it into a small eastern channel near the Yemeni shore and a wider western channel toward Djibouti and Eritrea. The shipping lanes run through the western side, but a force that holds Perim and the coast behind it can watch and reach every ship in both.

Until this week the southern Yemeni shore was held by forces aligned with the Saudi-led coalition. That kept the Houthis back from the mouth of the strait, even if their missiles could still reach it. Now there's no buffer. The group that attacked more than a hundred merchant ships from late 2023 holds the ground on the edge of the lane.

What the Houthis are saying

The messaging is careful. A member of the Houthi politburo said freedom of navigation and trade in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb were "safe and orderly." Other statements indicated the group would leave American and Israeli ships alone this time while reserving the right to attack Saudi shipping.

That's a sharp change in targets from 2024, when Israel-linked and later US and UK-linked ships were the declared focus. It fits the current war. Iran and the Houthis want Saudi Arabia under pressure, and Saudi Arabia's main bypass for Hormuz is the East-West pipeline to Yanbu, on the Red Sea. Crude loaded at Yanbu for Asia has to leave the Red Sea through Bab el-Mandeb. So the Houthis are now sitting on the exit of the Gulf's most important escape route.

Timing is bad for the container lines

The capture lands just as the big container carriers were moving back to Suez. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd had announced four more Gemini services shifting from the Cape to the canal, and COSCO, CMA CGM, MSC and OOCL had all returned to some degree. Suez container tonnage for the first eight months of 2026 was up 54 percent year on year.

Carriers are unlikely to reverse course on day one. The Houthi statements give Western-linked tonnage some reason to keep going. Insurers, though, price what a group can do. Statements count for little. A group with coastal positions on both sides of Perim can close the strait whenever it decides to, and it can change its target list overnight.

Oil moved right away. Brent pushed toward $100, and US diesel went above $6 a gallon.

What to watch

The first thing to watch is Riyadh. If the Saudis and their Yemeni allies try to retake the coast, the strait becomes a live front line. Then there's the threat to Saudi ships, and whether the Houthis act on it, most likely against tankers out of Yanbu. And the London market: Lloyd's Joint War Committee and the big hull underwriters decide, in practice, whether the Red Sea stays open.

The Gulf has one exit that bypasses Hormuz. As of this week, the Houthis are standing on it.