Drewry World Container Index Dips to $4,468 as Asia-Europe Rates Fall and Transpacific Holds Near Highs
Drewry's World Container Index slipped 1 percent this week to $4,468 per 40-foot container. The headline move is small. The split underneath it is the story. Asia-Europe rates are falling. Transpacific rates are still near the highest levels since the pandemic.
This week's lane moves:
- Shanghai to Rotterdam: $3,485, down 4 percent
- Shanghai to Genoa: $3,835, down 5 percent
- Shanghai to Los Angeles: $7,838, up 2 percent
- Shanghai to New York: $10,373, flat
For context, the same composite index was at $2,216 in early May, after three straight weekly declines and a lot of talk about overcapacity. It has roughly doubled since.
Why the Pacific is so expensive
The transpacific has taken several hits at once, and they stack.
Fuel is the biggest. The Hormuz closure pushed very low sulfur fuel oil up by about two-thirds between February and early summer, and prices climbed another 15 percent after the US-Iran ceasefire collapsed. Carriers have added emergency bunker surcharges of about $90 per 40-foot box on top of already high base rates.
Then there's Panama. El Niño is back, and the canal cut Neopanamax slots to nine a day from September 3, with tighter draft limits coming. Asia to US East Coast services that rely on the canal now carry surcharges of $200 to $1,000 per container. Some cargo is shifting to West Coast ports and rail, which tightens that side too.
Demand has also been solid. Importers pulled freight forward earlier in the year ahead of fuel adjustments and tariff deadlines, and peak season on the Pacific has stayed firm. By mid-August, Asia to US West Coast spot rates were around $7,400 and East Coast around $9,400, a new high at that point. They've kept going.
Why Europe is cooling
Asia-Europe is moving the other way for simple reasons. Capacity is coming back.
Carriers are returning to the Suez Canal, which shortens loops and frees ships. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are moving four more Gemini services back through the Red Sea. Every ship pulled off the Cape route is a ship that can be put somewhere else, and there is a record orderbook behind them. Asia-Europe peak season also started unwinding earlier than usual this year. Rates on that lane peaked in mid-July near $6,700 per box by some measures and have been sliding since.
Port congestion is the one factor holding Europe up. Rotterdam, Antwerp and the German ports have been running past capacity, made worse by strikes in Hamburg, Bremerhaven and Wilhelmshaven in August and September. Congestion ties up ships, which eats capacity and props up rates.
Golden Week and what comes next
China's Golden Week holiday starts October 1, and carriers are cutting sailings to match the dip in cargo. Drewry counts 15 blank sailings on the transpacific next week and 7 on Asia-Europe. It expects rates to keep easing.
The gap between the two main east-west trades should narrow over the next month. Europe is being pulled down by returning Suez capacity. The Pacific is being held up by fuel and Panama, and neither of those is going away soon.
The real risk sits outside the index. If the Houthis, who now hold the Yemeni side of Bab el-Mandeb, turn on shipping again, Asia-Europe capacity disappears overnight and the downtrend flips. Shippers booking Q4 cargo are pricing in a Suez route that could close again at short notice.