Container Lines Return to the Suez Canal Despite Houthi Gains at Bab el-Mandeb

On September 16 the OOCL Portugal made COSCO Shipping Lines' first southbound Suez transit of this return. That same day 39 ships carrying 2.3 million net tons went through the canal. For a waterway that container lines had largely given up on since early 2024, those are real numbers.

The return has been building for months. CMA CGM, Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd and OOCL are all back in the Red Sea to some degree. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have now said four more Gemini Cooperation services (AE5, AE11, AE12 and ME2) will switch from the Cape of Good Hope to Suez. Egypt's canal authority reports container ship net tonnage of 72.1 million tons for the first eight months of 2026. That's up 54.2 percent on 46.7 million tons a year earlier.

And all of this is happening in the same week the Houthis took Mocha and Perim Island, putting them on the edge of Bab el-Mandeb.

Why carriers are going back anyway

It comes down to fuel and time.

The Cape route adds 10 to 14 days to an Asia-Europe rotation and 3,500 to 4,000 nautical miles. When bunker fuel was cheap, carriers could absorb that. It isn't cheap now. Very low sulfur fuel oil jumped about 68 percent between mid-February and early summer as the Hormuz closure hit refining and supply. Maersk said it was paying around $500 million a month in extra fuel. Hapag-Lloyd put its hit at €50 to €60 million a week.

At those prices every day saved on a loop is money. Suez also frees up ships. A Cape-routed network needs roughly one extra vessel per loop to hold a weekly schedule. Bring the loop back through the canal and that ship can go somewhere else. With European ports clogged and demand holding up on some lanes, spare tonnage has real value.

There is also the Houthis' own position. Their latest statements say they won't target American or Israeli vessels this round, and they point their threats at Saudi shipping. Carriers read that as a window, maybe a short one.

What Maersk is saying

Maersk's language is cautious. The company says the safety of crews, vessels and cargo "remains the highest priority," and that future routing depends on Red Sea stability and no further escalation. Put simply, the services are going through Suez for now, and Maersk has kept the option to pull them out.

That's the pattern for the whole industry. Nobody is announcing a permanent return. Services are being moved one at a time, with contingency plans for the Cape ready.

What shippers should expect

For cargo owners on Asia-Europe, Suez routing means shorter and more predictable transit times, at least on the services that switch. It also adds capacity back to the market, which is part of why Asia-Europe spot rates have been sliding since their July peak. By the middle of August, Asia-North Europe was about 20 percent below its mid-July peak and Asia-Mediterranean about 30 percent below. More Suez capacity pushes in the same direction.

There's a catch. When services switch back and forth, schedules break, ships arrive in bunches, and ports that were built for one arrival pattern get another. North European terminals, already congested and hit by strikes, will feel it first.

And there's the risk that the whole thing reverses. If the Houthis move from statements to strikes, carriers will turn around again. Shippers who planned their Q4 inventory on 30-day Suez transits would suddenly face 45-day Cape transits in peak season.

The return to Suez is a bet on the Houthis' current target list staying as it is. It's a reasonable bet on the economics. It's also a bet on a group that holds the strait and can change its mind.