Asia-Europe Container Rates Fall as Suez Traffic Returns, While Transpacific Rates Keep Climbing

Container spot rates on the two big east-west trades are moving in opposite directions, and the Suez Canal explains most of it. Drewry's World Container Index slipped 1% this week to $4,468 per 40-foot container. The drop came from Asia-Europe, where Shanghai to Genoa fell 5% to $3,835 and Shanghai to Rotterdam lost 4% to $3,485. On the transpacific, Shanghai to Los Angeles rose 2% to $7,838 while Shanghai to New York held at $10,373.

A box from Shanghai to New York now costs almost three times as much as one to Rotterdam, a gap of close to $6,900 per container. By one broker's measure, the spread between transpacific and Asia-Europe spot rates is the widest on record.

Suez Adds Ships Without a Shipyard

Container ship transits of the Suez Canal rose to 48 in week 38 from 41 the week before. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have moved four more of their Gemini services back to the canal. COSCO sent the 24,188-TEU OOCL Portugal south through Suez on September 16, the line's first southbound transit since the Red Sea crisis began.

Every ship that skips the long haul around the Cape of Good Hope finishes its rotation sooner. Shorter voyages let the same fleet carry more boxes, so capacity rises without a single new delivery. Carriers are cancelling sailings to lean against it (seven blanked Asia-Europe departures next week, up from three this week), but the returning capacity outweighs the cuts. Asia-Europe rates are expected to keep sliding.

The transpacific has no Suez effect to absorb. Carriers there have cancelled 15 sailings for next week, up from nine, ahead of China's Golden Week holiday from October 1 to 7; Panama Canal constraints keep East Coast capacity tight as well. Even so, rates on that trade are expected to dip next week as the holiday lull sets in.

The Orderbook Arrives in 2027

The Suez return lands on top of a record pipeline of new ships. Depending on who's counting, the containership orderbook stands at 14 to 15.6 million TEU, equal to 42% to over 45% of a fleet that has just passed 34 million TEU. Scrapping is expected to stay low.

BIMCO's September outlook has ship supply growing 5% to 6% in 2027 under both of its scenarios for the Strait of Hormuz. Demand grows 0.5% to 2.5% if the strait stays closed and 2.5% to 4.5% if it reopens. Supply wins either way.

Then there's Suez. BIMCO reckons that once routings fully normalise, ship demand ends up about 10% lower than it would be if carriers kept sailing around Africa. On a 34 million TEU fleet, that's roughly 3.4 million TEU of effective capacity coming back to the market, more than twice the fleet's expected net growth this year.

The Risk to the Bet

Security could undo all of it. The Houthis have pushed forward around Bab el-Mandeb and struck Saudi infrastructure this month, and an attempted interception was reported east of Aden. One successful strike on a large containership in the Red Sea would send services back around the Cape within days, taking the Suez capacity with them.

For now, carriers are betting the route holds, and Asia-Europe shippers are the first to gain from it. The ships ordered while the trade ran around Africa start arriving next year.